Cart to Chart: A Deep-Dive Financial Model on D-Mart

Joel Stanley
3 days ago
2 min read

DMart, run by Avenue supermarts Limited, is a chain of large supermarkets across India.

Founded in 2002, DMart operates over 370 stores across India, targeting middle-class families who want value for money. It is a one-stop shop where you can buy groceries, household goods, clothes, and daily essentials. DMart makes money by selling these products at a small markup over what it pays suppliers. Its main costs are the goods it buys, store operating expenses like staff and utilities, and depreciation on its buildings.

The financial model shows a company growing steadily and profitably.

Actual revenue was ₹50,789 Crores in FY24, rising to ₹59,358 Crores in FY25.

My forecast predicts revenue reaching approximately ₹68,855 Crores in FY26 and

₹79,184 Crores in FY27, based on growth assumptions of 16% and 15% respectively.

I chose these rates because DMart's 3-year revenue CAGR has moderated from 23%

historically to around 16-17% recently. The net profit margin has held steady at around 4.5-4.6% across both actual years. The most interesting number I found was the Operating Profit Margin of roughly 7-8%, which has barely moved over a decade . Net profit grew from ₹3,770 Crores to ₹4,667 Crores in actuals, and my model forecasts continued growth.

DMart is fundamentally a strong business which is profitable and has a steady growth.

However, it faces a real and growing threat from quick commerce apps like Blinkit, Zepto, and Swiggy, Instamart, which deliver groceries to your door in 10 minutes. The biggest risk to my forecast is that urban customers increasingly prefer convenience over price as Dmart is more of a physical store than a quick commerce store. For Dmart to do better the company had to increase its online presence and do well in quick commerce as well as in offiline stores. For it to do worse, quick commerce would need to enter into Tier 2 cities, which is currently DMart's growth stronghold.

Verdict: DMart is a great business facing a genuinely disruptive threat , strong today, but the next five years will be its toughest test yet.

The assumption I am least confident about is the COGS at 85.5% of revenue. I derived this from DMart's operating profit margin trend, but in reality DMart does not separately disclose COGS and OpEx in the way this model structures it. This matters because the entire forecast depends on this one percentage.